Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
